Ethereum Hypocrisy

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Today, a perfect example of why, despite my extreme skepticism of the decentralization movement, I felt that Truthcoin did guard enough value (both [1] literally, as InTrade was a pseudo-bank / value-custodian, and [2] abstractly as info-sources have propaganda-value) to be worth putting on a blockchain. Ethereum users, frustrated by literally years of broken promises, have decided to get a second opinion on Ethereum's release date, and have turned to prediction market service Fairlay.

Only to have the resulting information derided in the most ludicrous way:

Obvious ad is obvious, but at least you're honest with your username, /u/sockpupet , with a whole 3 post to your name.

Downvoted for now but in the future we're going to have rules similar Consider the next couple weeks a 'socialization' period :)

From Stephan Tual, sporting the official ETHDEV flair and everything.

We could stop and laugh at this gentlemen's cluelessness for several paragraphs, but what I find most interesting is that, immediately most of the other subreddit members correctly identify this comment as ridiculous. As is so often the case, those in charge just can't believe that someone-who-isn't-them could have more reliable information, but other stakeholders can easily believe that. Even the wise and the well-meaning (perhaps, especially) fall victim to cognitive dissonance..."no need to ask the PMs for help, after all I am an honest man (unlike those other people)".

This is why PMs must be immortal: Even Ethereum, the tech-idealist capital of the year 2014, obviously hasn't introduced internal prediction markets to help them forecast important project management details like release dates. Now we see that, even when lightly imposed on them from afar, PMs are actively resisted by moderators of the subreddit (a competing info source) to the point of censorship!
Nullius In Verba


Just found a PM (probably by Augur Project posted by Joey) on the odds of Ethereum frontier release..

Can't say about the authenticity..  ;)


Yes, I've corresponded with Fairlay on how ridiculous their order book is.

The latest prices are always here:

...and currently seem to indicate that Ethereum won't go live until August, and won't have a trade-able price on August 30th.
Nullius In Verba