isn't multisig a risk since it allows trustless collusion for a (vote) attacker coalition?
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#62
Design / Incentives / Game Theory / Re: Mining
August 22, 2014, 03:02:02 AM
A big disadvantage of using the Bitcoin POW is that 51% attacks are very likely.
Even if shared mining will be done - in the beginning only a small fraction of the Bitcoin miners would join. In this situation every Bitcoin pool would have the possibility for a 51% attack. Thus I think sha256 should only be used if a decent percentage of the miners/hashpower would join from the beginning.
Even if shared mining will be done - in the beginning only a small fraction of the Bitcoin miners would join. In this situation every Bitcoin pool would have the possibility for a 51% attack. Thus I think sha256 should only be used if a decent percentage of the miners/hashpower would join from the beginning.
#63
Design / Incentives / Game Theory / Re: Voter Collaboration - early publishing of votes/private keys
August 22, 2014, 02:25:38 AM
I am not sure if it is true for all possible implementations of encrypting messages, but I think in general it is possible to prove to others the content of an encrypted message without revealing the key? - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proofs
#64
Outside Work / Re: Fairlay
August 22, 2014, 12:18:33 AM
Thanks - we are absolute open to share our experience or build upon things as soon as they are ready. (Could be parts like a distribution of the orderbook or just a distributed database of the events (in theory we could alter them - and this would be avoided)
Regarding matching: we use the same mechanism like intrade or betfair. People can basically place orders with a quantity and a price - and we match them.
However, we have struggle with having enough liquidity for this model. At least we do not accept all new event suggestion since we don't want to end up with mostly illiquid markets.
Our next step to address that issue is to provide an API (shame on us, we did not have one from the beginning) for market makers. We are already in contact with a few. However, they will do it mainly on topics where they can fetch decent odds from another source (like sport bets (-> other bookmakers), future bitcoin price (-> current bitcoin price + simple mathematical model) , difficulty (-> current + model))
For other event where it is only about expert knowledge (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mark-karpeles-charged-criminal-offense/) it might be indeed a better solution to implement some market scoring rule.
Regarding matching: we use the same mechanism like intrade or betfair. People can basically place orders with a quantity and a price - and we match them.
However, we have struggle with having enough liquidity for this model. At least we do not accept all new event suggestion since we don't want to end up with mostly illiquid markets.
Our next step to address that issue is to provide an API (shame on us, we did not have one from the beginning) for market makers. We are already in contact with a few. However, they will do it mainly on topics where they can fetch decent odds from another source (like sport bets (-> other bookmakers), future bitcoin price (-> current bitcoin price + simple mathematical model) , difficulty (-> current + model))
For other event where it is only about expert knowledge (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mark-karpeles-charged-criminal-offense/) it might be indeed a better solution to implement some market scoring rule.
#65
Design / Incentives / Game Theory / Voter Collaboration - early publishing of votes/private keys
August 21, 2014, 10:17:15 PM
I question your assumption that it is not possible for voters to make provable public what they have voted for without loosing control of the coins.
You argue that users encrypt their votes and release the private key only when all votes are placed - since otherwise someone else could control the vote (the TRU?)
However, as far as I understood the timeframe for placing a vote is in the range of days while the timeframe for a block creation is more like 10 minutes (??). Now - when my vote is in the blockchain (together with a (not encrypted) transaction to a different address, right?) what prevents me from publishing the private key?
You argue that users encrypt their votes and release the private key only when all votes are placed - since otherwise someone else could control the vote (the TRU?)
However, as far as I understood the timeframe for placing a vote is in the range of days while the timeframe for a block creation is more like 10 minutes (??). Now - when my vote is in the blockchain (together with a (not encrypted) transaction to a different address, right?) what prevents me from publishing the private key?
#66
Outside Work / Fairlay
August 21, 2014, 08:25:06 PM
Hi,
I am the co-Founder of Fairlay.com a yet still centralized prediction market.
However, we started working on the site (little bit more then a year ago) because we are obsessed by PMs and blockchain tech. Our approach has been to set something up running and we will decentralize the underlying mechanics (money storage, order book, resolution) step by step.
Thus we follow everything what is happening in this space and will use services as soon they could replace a part of our site. (like realitykeys, multi-sigsolutions,...)
A presentation about the current state (from our view) of decentralized PMs is given here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZO1JQtMang
I don't think that it contains really new stuff for member of this board...
If truthcoin would exist we would not hesitate to build on it.
Our general status - we have around 1700 registered users (even if it is not necessary to register). We had the most prediction volume during the last 2 weeks of the FIFA World Cup even if we build our site with mainly predictions on politics and Bitcoin related events in mind. We all know that a betting exchange like betfair or a PM like intrade have the same underlying mechanism but they still attract different user. In the end user used to sport betting still found it easier.
That been said - from our experience so far our main obstacle is user not understanding the site and not being not decentralized.
I am the co-Founder of Fairlay.com a yet still centralized prediction market.
However, we started working on the site (little bit more then a year ago) because we are obsessed by PMs and blockchain tech. Our approach has been to set something up running and we will decentralize the underlying mechanics (money storage, order book, resolution) step by step.
Thus we follow everything what is happening in this space and will use services as soon they could replace a part of our site. (like realitykeys, multi-sigsolutions,...)
A presentation about the current state (from our view) of decentralized PMs is given here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZO1JQtMang
I don't think that it contains really new stuff for member of this board...
If truthcoin would exist we would not hesitate to build on it.
Our general status - we have around 1700 registered users (even if it is not necessary to register). We had the most prediction volume during the last 2 weeks of the FIFA World Cup even if we build our site with mainly predictions on politics and Bitcoin related events in mind. We all know that a betting exchange like betfair or a PM like intrade have the same underlying mechanism but they still attract different user. In the end user used to sport betting still found it easier.
That been said - from our experience so far our main obstacle is user not understanding the site and not being not decentralized.
#67
Outside Work / Re: The PM Landscape
August 21, 2014, 07:37:48 PM
I think sites with a time wighted parimutuel betting system can not be used as prediction market because even if they are liquid and most people act rational on them they do not necessarily came up with numbers for the likelihood of events. However, if betmoos is listed, then bitbet.us should be listed as well since they have more or less the same betting system but in order of magnitudes higher volume.