The PM Landscape

[psztorc]

Here I'm going to try to keep a running summary of everyone's PM projects. I know I'll find this useful.

Crypto
https://www.predictious.com/ (Traditional Double-Auction)
https://www.fairlay.com/ (Custom Double-Auction)
https://www.betmoose.com/ (Time-Multiplied Parimutuel)
https://www.realitykeys.com/ (No public market)
https://crypto.cab/ (Undetermined)
http://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/25hxim/binary_prediction_market_contract/ (Market Scoring Rule)
http://xbet.io/categories/main_page/Soccer/england/England:%20Premier%20League (European-football and horse racing only)

Fiat
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
https://hypermind.lumenogic.com/hypermind/app.html?#welcome ( previously http://www.inklingmarkets.com/ and NewsFutures )
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem
http://betfair.com/
https://www.ipredict.co.nz/
http://kn-x.com/ (?)
https://www.crowdmed.com
https://www.predictit.org/


Token
https://scicast.org/#!/
http://ideosphere.com/
https://prediction.microsoft.com/#!/home
http://playpivit.com/


Graveyard

http://www.reddit.com/r/BetsOfBitcoin/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/211yss/betsofbitcoin_down_probably_stolen_users_coins/

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-news/btcsportsbet-bitcoin-sportsbook-steals-6-700-winnings-6082/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=581982.0

https://betcoiner.com/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=451995.msg7960686#msg7960686

[ghabs]

quasi-PM for medical diagnosis
https://www.crowdmed.com

[psztorc]

Cool!

[martinBrown]

A couple new ones.

https://betcoiner.com/

https://xbet.io/ - uses CounterParty (XCP) for decentralized order books.

[koeppelmann]

I think sites with a time wighted parimutuel betting system can not be used as prediction market because even if they are liquid and most people act rational on them they do not necessarily came up with numbers for the likelihood of events. However, if betmoos is listed, then bitbet.us should be listed as well since they have more or less the same betting system but in order of magnitudes higher volume.

[psztorc]

HT to Matthew from Blossom for pointing out this fiat marketplace: https://www.predictit.org/

Of course, (as is typical) anonymous trading is not allowed, trading must be done in USD, one must have the administrator's approval to create a new market, and there seem to be no multidimensional markets.

Two atypical things are [1] that trading seems to be capped at $850 per user per market (with identity verification -ostensibly- discouraging mule accounts), and that [2] the fees seem to be *very* high at 10% of profits (but, income-tax style, nothing on losses or break-evens).

[1] https://www.predictit.org/About/HowItWorks
[2] https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5000516383-what-are-your-fees-

The good news is that it is university-backed and operates out of New Zealand (which is PM-friendly). Obviously, in this line of work you take (gratefully) whatever you can get!