User interest

[dengorbachev]

For Truthcoin to succeed, users must be interested in prediction markets in general. What's unique about Truthcoin that will make users more interested in prediction markets than they are now?

[psztorc]

Previously, one had to use a slow/expensive wire transfer to Ireland. The fastest way of funding was, in fact, to literally mail a check, and all kinds of annoying paperwork was required.

Now even that isn't good enough, because the company offering the service closed.

However, while InTrade existed, it did experience healthy growth over time. So I think that, unlike most other tech projects, interest isn't actually the bottleneck.

Although PMs do sometimes have a problem with low interest, I believe this is more "conflict of interest" than "lack of interest" and I am working something which explains that in more detail.

[dengorbachev]

How about gambling sites? Isn't it easier for users to bet at predetermined odds?

[psztorc]

What does gambling have to do with prediction markets?

[dengorbachev]

I was trying to explain prediction markets to my friends, and one of them asked: "If there's a horse race, can I create a prediction market on it?"

Besides, there's "Recreation" section in 3_PM_Applications.pdf.

P.S. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to understand PMs better.

[dengorbachev]

Oh, I understand now. Betting != Gambling. Still, the question stands.

Why is Truthcoin more appealing than InTrade? + Why is Truthcoin more appealing than Predictious?

In other words, how putting PM on blockchain makes it more appealing to end users?

[zack]

Why is Truthcoin more appealing than InTrade?

intrade died.

Why is Truthcoin more appealing than Predictious?

Those are entirely different tools. It is like asking "why are hammers more appealing than saws?".

how putting PM on blockchain makes it more appealing to end users?

It allows us to minimize 3rd party risk.
Paul's 1st pdf goes into more detail.
http://www.truthcoin.info/papers/1_Purpose.pdf

[dengorbachev]

Yes, sorry, I meant [Any centralized prediction market] instead of InTrade specifically.

That's exactly the question How are those tools different? e.g. saw is different from a hammer: saw cuts trees, hammer doesn't. What does Truthcoin do for users better than Predictious?

How much do users care about 3rd party risk?

[psztorc]

> How much do users care about 3rd party risk?

Probably not very much, but the alternatives consistently steal user's money and/or cease to exist, so it seems that none of us really have any choice.

It is the same with Bitcoin....in my view, no one really *wants* to use Bitcoin...it is just the only tool that does the job.

> In other words, how putting PM on blockchain makes it more appealing to end users?

I think this is actually a very insightful question. For a protocol, it only has to work, the "user experience" is irrelevant. This is basically the opposite of most tech development, in which the user experience is everything.